Chiddu presents the Indian Budget ..

Finally the budget 2007 is here and doesnt seem to have a major effect on my life. My tax deduction limit was raised from Rs 100,000 to 110,000 equating to a refund check of Rs 1000. Shoes, Watches and Plywood are expected to cost less and finally I can afford a nice pair of shoes after paying my taxes ;-)

I watched this speech for 15 mins and couldnt take it after the FM announced an allocation of Rs 22 Crores combined for 4 states and also took the time to name the states getting the funds. While he was busy talking about things that didnt matter, his colleagues were picking their noses without any realization that they are on National TV. Does 22 crores need a full country's attention ?.. Dear FM, come over to Hyderabad and sell 1.5 acre of govt land and you dont even need a budget to fund that project.

Some areas like Agriculture, Rural Infra, Healthcare received high funding making it a very good budget for India overall. There was even a program to stop dropouts at 8th grade [ I was not aware that this was an issue ], and also some merit based scholarschips along with an increase in education cess of 1% which are sure add fuel to the the inflation fire.

Infosys mentor Narayan Murthy's wishes to pay taxes in India were granted when the govt decided to levy a MAT on IT/ITES sector ( Minimum alternative tax.. similar to AMT in US 1040 ) . But this tax may not hurt infosys much since it pays most of its taxes outside India. Also ESOPS now fall under Fringe benefit tax.

Market fell 540 points today and can create further panic selling tomorrow unless the government and the foreign investors do something to create the support levels. Drops of 300+ points have the potential to destabilize the Margin players who are critical to the market.

Lending Rates raised again

In a surprise move yesterday, ICICI bank has raised its lending rates further, becoming the bank with the highest rate of 13% on Fixed and 11% on floating loans. Though HDFC is lagging behind, it is also expected to move higher by 100bps or a 1% soon. PLR ( Prime Lending Rate ) the reference rate has been left untouched , keeping the existing loans at the same rates as of Feb 6th 2007. Many feel that this move by ICICI is in line with its strategy to slowing down growth in home loan portfolio. Many state owned banks have also raised interest rates for new borrowers and the rates are expected to go further up.

On deposits banks are increasing it further with SBI, ICICI offering upto 9.5% interest as of today. Senior citizens get an additional 0.25% on their deposits generating an annualized yield of 11.75% at 9.75% savings rate.

In other finance developments, Forex reserves of India increased to $190b, creating some more issues for the financeministry. Rupee is being reigned in through various measures by the government but the fact remains that rupee has appreciated against the dollar from 46.9/$ [ when I landed at hyderabad in july] to 43.9/$ [ last week ] and this may continue creating margin pressures for exporters as well as the outsourcing industry.

Disclaimer : I dont claim to be an economist or even some one with formal finance education..

Fab City, Sem India, Semicon Policy.. What does it mean for Hyderabad ?

The hype and confusion still continue around the Fab City project of Hyderabad. Everyone was banking on the announcement of semiconductor policy in India which was finally revealed on thursday. Per the new policy, manufacturing plants in SEZS can avail 20% subsidy for semiconductor plants and those outside the SEZ's can avail 25% subsidy. This subsidy will be in the form of tax concessions, interest subsidy and interest free loans for subsidizing the capital expenditure incurred in setting up the manufacturing units for the first 10 years of its existence.

25% is exactly what SemIndia [ promoter of fabcity ] has been demanding saying that it needs atleast this much to sustain. New York state has recently granted a 28% subsidy to AMD to setup its fab in the state. So, what the Indian government is offering is no more than what a US state would offer. Korea is known to offer 80% of the costs incurred and malaysia is known to offer a double deduction for R&D etc.

In fab business companies operate at a 12% Margin irrespective of the location. About 88% of the cost of a chip fab are static and do not change regardless of the location the plants are in. So, India may serve as the testing, packing destination for a while instead of being a manufacturing site. A recent semiconductor vision summit also quashed some myths about the scale of initial operation. SemIndia's goals are to acquire fab's across the world , operate them as-is and then transfer them to India. One component that is guaranteed to come to Hyderabad is a chip design entity that will design chips for DSL Modems [ is that cutting edge anymore ?.. aren't there tons of these design shops in India already ? ], but the manufacturing will actually take place near Chennai in a 3rd party plant, followed by a semindia branding and sold to BSNL.

Recent and continuous announcements about an ATMP ( Assemble Test Mark Pack ) facility being the first in Fab City doesnt indicate that too much will happen in the near future in fabcity. No doubt, the growth will be slow, but dont be fooled by the hype around the 3 billion investments since it will be a long time before that really flows in.

While I really look forward to Hyderabad becoming a Fab center/Fab city, I do not see a clear roadmap to achieving the same from semindia. SemIndia from my research is not just focussing on Hyderabad, they have plans for other locations too..

R2I Financial Data Consolidation : A Tip

The # of login/passwords that we remember in current day is mind boggling. 2 to 3 years ago I ran into this service called yodlee and I have become a fan since and have used it extensively during my stint in the US. For those of you who do not know what its all about, Yodlee allows you to link all your bank account balances, assets, investments, reward programs into one single account where I can monitor all transactions and movements.

Recently I was almost giving up on this service since my accounts are now moving to Indian Banks and Brokerages. I tried a search for ICICI and was surprised to see the support for Indian banks too. So, if you are in US and have Indian accounts or vice-versa, you should be able to link all of them together into a dashboard.

You can sign up for this in 2 ways, you can sign up on yodlee directly [ I recommend this method ] by clicking Here. Select Log into US$ account and then select register. Alternate option is to pick from one of your banks that already uses the platform [ listed here ].

They employ a # of software engineers in bangalore, so another reason to support their services I guess ;-)

Hyderabad Real Estate : Corruption, Investments and My Strategy

Housing / Real Estate are the most expensive in Hyderabad. With 1 sq. yard .. equivalent of 9 sq. ft going for an average of 20,000 in most live-able areas and upto 50,000 in the posh areas, it has become a challenge to find a suitable living space in Hyderabad. Commercial / Main road / prime plots if not kabza'd or taken over by crooks/politicians will fetch you 100,000 per sq yd on main roads of Jubilee and Banjara hills.

Corruption is very rampant in real estate transactions in the best areas of the city. There are some plots being sold with multiple registrations and some being put under litigation by the original owners / pattadar's of the nawab time. Now a days, it has become compulsory to have every member of the seller/original owners family sign on the sale deed to avoid any issues in the future. Settlement mafia's are rampant, they some how get the common people with good land into trouble and settle for 10-20% of the value etc..

On real estate investments in apts and houses, its important to realize that the days of 100-300% returns are gone if you invest today, and even the 50-100% returns are very rare. The large returns are available to the folks who are plugged in to the political/industrial families and can acquire land before projects are announced or for companies like infosys [ who is evolving to be the biggest land grabber in India today ].

Coming back to the housing thing, the house I currently rent would cost me around 3 to 4 crores to buy ( 30 to 40 Million rupees).. and the possibility of this area moving up 100% in 1 year is very unlikely.. [ who knows.. I have been wrong many times..;-) ]

My thought wrt buying in my favourite area is different.. Correct me if I am wrong.. I some how am not too big on house ownership after living through it in the US. Too much of dead capital .. Atleast we had home equity loans to draw upon in the US. Now, I pay 30,000 pm / ~Rs 10/sqft all inclusive.. [ No extra charge for maintenance, repairs, servant quarter, solar heater, 24 hr muncipal water .. and just have to let my landlord know to get things fixed when they are broken etc. ]. Yes, 30K are running out of your account pm, but I would hear a giant sucking sound if I had to pay the bank @ 11% on a loan of 24 Mil Rs...

Here is my understanding about deductability of interest in India.. The max deduction you can have on housing interest is 1.5Lac/annum so going to a max of 15 Lac loan@10% will get you the best benefit for the early years. A nice article here. . .... So, what good does it do paying 4 Lacs of interest on a 40 Lac Loan ?. I certainly agree that appreciation is there, but do you think its worth buying an apt in the current market at Rs.5000/sqft ?

Some of you asked me what I am doing with the money if I have not bought a house.. I still have a sizeable amount left in the USD, dont want to touch it unless I am sure I can consistently beat the ~15% I am able to generate Year over Year. Of the money I have in hand, some risk capital has gone into speculative land deals [ Jai Telangana ;-) ], invested in some mid level housing where the values are more affordable and can fetch some good rental income and thirdly sticking to the true and tried 15% compounding with some of the investments. With the small amount left, I am trying to leverage it as a down payment to leverage a govt subsidized investment in a family business/ industrial unit.

Hope this strategy will pay off in the long run and I am not too worried about the future since Uncle Sam and Social Security are supposed to take care of me and my family ;-).. Yeah Right !!!

All feedback regarding this article is welcome...

Hyderabad Fab City In Trouble ?

Deccan Chronicle reports that state govt has decided to cut the SemIndia Fab city role to 75 acres from a proposed 5000 acre operation. Mr Agarwal of SemIndia was supposed to have his initial plant operational by June 2007 and all indications are that he has not started any work yet. Govt seems to have decided that it will give the remaining land on lease to any semiconductor company that wants to setup here.

Though all indications are that this will be revived through a renewed effort of bringing in small players into this project, the recent news for Hyderabad has not been very good in the manufacturing sector. Dell and other companies that were being invited by this great city have decided to move to Chennai. Chennai is slowly gaining momemtum to be the biggest manufacturing base in south india..